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US economy & global impact

Rates, inflation, demand and business costs. Read the data before making a commercial decision.

Latest reports

Report · 2026-11-04

Orders, shipments, backlog and inventory answer different operating questions

The U.S. Census Bureau's 3 November full M3 report estimated September 2026 seasonally adjusted new manufacturing orders at $677.247 billion, up 1.8% from revised August. Orders excluding transportation were $557.359 billion, up 1.3%. Shipments were $668.454 billion, up 1.3%; unfilled orders were $1,623.818 billion at month-end, up 0.9%; and inventories were $976.044 billion, up 0.4%. The total manufacturing inventory-to-shipments ratio eased to 1.46 from 1.47. Orders and shipments measure activity during the month, while backlog and inventory are end-of-month stocks, so they are not interchangeable. The September estimates are preliminary, subject to revision and not adjusted for price changes. Census also says the survey panel is not a probability sample, so sampling error cannot be calculated.

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Report · 2026-10-30

Inventory growth is a balance-sheet signal, not proof of demand

The U.S. Census Bureau's 28 October advance report put September wholesale inventories at $1,011.5 billion, 0.6% above the revised August level of $1,005.6 billion. Retail inventories were $885.3 billion, up 0.3% from a revised $882.3 billion. The advance goods trade deficit was $134.9 billion, 2.1% above August's $132.1 billion. These figures are seasonally adjusted but are not adjusted for price changes, and the newest inventory estimates are preliminary. Census also says wholesale estimates in this release reflect revisions published on 26 October, based on historical corrections and the 2023 and 2024 Annual Integrated Economic Survey. A separate 15 October release estimated September retail and food-service sales at $745.0 billion, up 0.8% from August and 6.3% from a year earlier, also without a price adjustment. The releases do not show that every category, business or unit volume followed the headline values.

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Report · 2026-09-20

Rates and inflation: read them together, budget separately

On 16 September, the Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00%. August headline CPI was 3.4% year over year and 0.4% month over month, seasonally adjusted for the monthly figure.

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Commercial decisions · 5 min read

What makes a customer need difficult to postpone?

Test durable demand through the cost of waiting, substitutes, buying rhythm and delivery capability—not a list of product categories.

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Company statements are attributed to the publisher. Our analysis is separate; forward-looking points are questions to monitor, not promised outcomes.