Sıtkı YılmazCOMMERCE & PERSPECTIVE
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Global trade & logistics

A continuing record of how goods move and get paid for: compare earlier operating conditions with current customs, shipping and settlement evidence, then examine possible changes without turning scenarios into forecasts.

Latest reports

Report ·

Orders, shipments, backlog and inventory answer different operating questions

The U.S. Census Bureau's 3 November full M3 report estimated September 2026 seasonally adjusted new manufacturing orders at $677.247 billion, up 1.8% from revised August. Orders excluding transportation were $557.359 billion, up 1.3%. Shipments were $668.454 billion, up 1.3%; unfilled orders were $1,623.818 billion at month-end, up 0.9%; and inventories were $976.044 billion, up 0.4%. The total manufacturing inventory-to-shipments ratio eased to 1.46 from 1.47. Orders and shipments measure activity during the month, while backlog and inventory are end-of-month stocks, so they are not interchangeable. The September estimates are preliminary, subject to revision and not adjusted for price changes. Census also says the survey panel is not a probability sample, so sampling error cannot be calculated.

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Report ·

Inventory growth is a balance-sheet signal, not proof of demand

The U.S. Census Bureau's 28 October advance report put September wholesale inventories at $1,011.5 billion, 0.6% above the revised August level of $1,005.6 billion. Retail inventories were $885.3 billion, up 0.3% from a revised $882.3 billion. The advance goods trade deficit was $134.9 billion, 2.1% above August's $132.1 billion. These figures are seasonally adjusted but are not adjusted for price changes, and the newest inventory estimates are preliminary. Census also says wholesale estimates in this release reflect revisions published on 26 October, based on historical corrections and the 2023 and 2024 Annual Integrated Economic Survey. A separate 15 October release estimated September retail and food-service sales at $745.0 billion, up 0.8% from August and 6.3% from a year earlier, also without a price adjustment. The releases do not show that every category, business or unit volume followed the headline values.

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Report ·

AI chip supply is expanding across packaging, testing and optics—not just fabrication

On 21 October, NVIDIA announced capacity agreements and planned facilities across several stages of its supply chain. It says substrate agreements with IBIDEN, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Unimicron should raise aggregate capacity 2.5 times over three years. Amkor and NVIDIA target more than a 300% increase in interposer-wafer capacity by the end of 2028. NVIDIA expects total semiconductor-testing capacity to double from 2026 to 2027; a $1.1 billion reservation advance is intended to support KYEC testing facilities in the United States, with high-volume production targeted for April 2027. SPIL targets a 15-fold increase in optical-engine capacity by mid-2027 and aims to double it again by the end of 2028. These are company targets and forward-looking statements. They are not completed capacity, independently audited output, guaranteed allocation, delivery dates or customer pricing.

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Report ·

Raw material is not the same as retained value

UN Trade and Development published its October Global Trade Update on 14 October. It estimates that biodiversity-based products represented 17.3% of global merchandise trade in 2024 and that exports of roughly 1,800 such products reached nearly $3.8 trillion. Developing countries accounted for about 35% of those exports, compared with 49% for European economies; Africa accounted for 3% and Latin America and the Caribbean 11%. The report's gum arabic example records an average African export price of $2.28 per kilogram and an average $6.50 import price for the same product from high-income markets. That comparison illustrates a value-chain gap, not a verified profit margin. The publication also reports that natural alternatives to plastics can face average import tariffs of up to 16.1%. In its reviewed standards, producers alone bore implementation costs in 51 of 87 cases and certification costs in 45 of 89. These are UNCTAD classifications and estimates for the stated periods, not a measure of any individual company's economics.

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Report ·

A return is an inventory-routing decision, not one cost line

ThredUp announced on 12 October that Pact's pre-owned inventory would be listed and dropshipped directly on ThredUp's marketplace through an integration with reverse-logistics provider Fillogic. The companies say the flow covers item serialization, grading, listing and fulfillment. Pact's current rewards page separately describes a ThredUp clean-out program that can pay in Pact credit and a Pact resale marketplace operated with Treet. Together, the pages show that a brand may use more than one resale path, but they do not publish independently verified results for time to sale, net recovery, return rates or profitability. Claims that items can return to market within days or unlock margin recovery are provider statements, not measured outcomes supplied to this review.

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Companies and sources on our watchlist

Company statements are attributed to the publisher. Our analysis is separate; forward-looking points are questions to monitor, not promised outcomes.